China's May 2025 paraffin wax import/export data has been released. Both paraffin wax and candle exports rose month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY), hitting annual highs. This growth has effectively eased domestic supply/demand imbalances and strongly supported the current upward trend in paraffin wax prices.
China's paraffin wax market is in a mature development phase. As a petroleum refining byproduct, its downstream industries are stable. Long-term oversupply has made exports a key focus for market participants. May exports reached 70.8k tonnes, the highest monthly level this year.
Domestic output from major refineries was 122.8k tonnes in May 2025, up 11.33% MoM but down 5.03% YoY. Plant suspensions occurred at Maoming, Jinan refinery, and Dalian Petrochemical (due to relocation). Jan-May cumulative output was 624k tonnes, down 6.3% YoY. Current daily output fluctuates around 3.8k tonnes based on maintenance schedules and Daqing crude supply. June output is estimated at ~125k tonnes.
Low import volumes have minimal impact on the domestic market. May imports were 379 tonnes, up 11% MoM and 14.3% YoY (primarily from Germany). With stable domestic Fischer-Tropsch and paraffin wax supply, imports are expected to stay low (~300 tonnes in June).
May exports of 70.8k tonnes accounted for 57.7% of total monthly output, rising 47.87% MoM and 31.5% YoY. Key drivers: replenishment during the duty window period and attractive Chinese prices spurring foreign buying. Jan-May cumulative exports were 283.6k tonnes, up 4.99% YoY. June exports are projected at 63k-68k tonnes.
China exported to 85 countries/regions in May. Top buyers: Mexico (20.6k tonnes, 29.08% share, +47.6% MoM, +38.2% YoY), Poland (7.4k tonnes, 10.44% share, +30.7% MoM, +214% YoY), Vietnam (+103% MoM, +516% YoY).
Top regional flows: North America (Mexico, Guatemala, USA) ~37% share; Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand) ~15% share; Europe (Poland, Spain) ~17% share. South American demand showed significant growth.
By trade method: General trade dominated (70k tonnes, 98.37% share, +58.5% MoM), mainly from PetroChina's Northeast refineries. Processing trade plunged (910 tonnes, 1.29% share, -72.3% MoM, -91% YoY) due to Dalian Petrochemical's relocation, primarily from Gaoqiao Petrochemical.
By customs location: Shanghai led (47.5k tonnes, 67% share, +91.5% MoM, +179% YoY; mainly Fushun/Daqing resources). Liaoning Province second (17.4k tonnes, -16% YoY; PetroChina refineries).
Candle exports: 31.5k tonnes in May, +16.7% MoM, +8.82% YoY (highest May since 2023). Jan-May cumulative: 137.8k tonnes, +663% YoY.
Top candle buyers: UK (3,817 tonnes, +98.63% MoM), Netherlands (2,558 tonnes, +3.15% MoM). EU exports rose amid pre-shipments ahead of stricter regulations and anti-dumping duties. Market pressure persists; June exports projected at 28k-33k tonnes.
May data shows a supply-demand standoff. Despite weak consumption growth, supply constraints fuel seller reluctance to offload stock. Export support from the duty window period reinforces strong upward expectations.